Conflict forecaster joins faculty

An international forecasting expert has joined Monash as a visiting senior lecturer in the Business and Economic Forecasting Unit, part of the Faculty of Business and Economics.

Dr Kesten Green's research challenges conventional methods of predicting outcomes of conflict situations including industrial disputes, boardroom battles and war with terrorists.

Instead of using statistics or experts' predictions, Dr Green uses role-playing.

"We have found that forecasts from simulations using role-players are substantially more accurate than forecasts from conventional approaches," he said.

The unit's director, Professor Rob Hyndman, said Dr Green's work brought a new dimension to this area.

"Most of our work involves forecasting using statistical and econometric models. Kesten's research is essentially non-statistical as it uses structured judgmental methods to forecast events where there are no quantitative data. He is an international leader in the area of forecasting using role-playing and analogies. One important application of his ideas is in terrorism forecasting which is obviously very topical," he said.

During his appointment from July until December, Dr Green will conduct research in the faculty's Business and Economic Forecasting Unit and teach in the MBA program.

Prior to his Monash appointment, he was a senior research fellow at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand.